online gambling singapore online gambling singapore online slot malaysia online slot malaysia mega888 malaysia slot gacor live casino malaysia online betting malaysia mega888 mega888 mega888 mega888 mega888 mega888 mega888 mega888 mega888 Fed傳聲筒:聯準會面對升息抉擇困難、怕加息惡化銀行擠兌

摘要: 有「聯準會傳聲筒」 之稱的華爾街日報記者 Nick Timiraos 上週才預測聯準會有可能將在本週決議暫停升息,今日他再撰文表示,Fed 本週在升息問題上面臨艱難的決定,升息可能展現抗通膨決心,但恐會加劇銀行業危機引發的市場動盪。


素有「聯準會傳聲筒」 之稱的華爾街日報記者 Nick Timiraos 今(21)日撰文指出,聯準會主席鮑爾和 其他 Fed 官員本週將面臨多年來最艱難的決定之一:「是再次升息以對抗頑固的高通膨,還是在 2008 年以來最嚴重的銀行業危機中選擇暫停升息。」

Timiraos 認為聯準會此次是否升息一碼的決定可能部分取決於市場如何消化瑞銀集團(UBS)收購瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)的消息,以及美國為平息銀行業危機蔓延的擔憂而採取的措施。

聯準會官員為期兩天的利率決策會議將於本週三(22 日)結束。芝商所(CME)的 FedWatch 最新數據顯示,投資者預測聯準會可能會繼續升息 1 碼的機率現來到 73.1%,不升息的機率則為 26.9%。

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▲圖片標題(來源:blocktempo)

聯準會官員對升息與否看法不一

Timiraos 表示,Fed 面臨兩難,升息可能會突顯出聯準會抗通膨的承諾,但卻有可能加劇銀行業危機引發的市場動盪,帶來痛苦的經濟低迷,如果官員誤判,後續可能須採取更徹底的干預措施。

銀行業的動盪可能會導致信貸減少,高盛的經濟學家估計,由於銀行業壓力而收緊貸款標準相當於聯準會基準利率上調 1 至 2 碼。

兩週前,在經濟報告顯示年初的就業、支出和通膨比預期強勁後,鮑爾建議官員們討論升息 1 至 2 碼。然而,最近數據表明勞動力市場和物價壓力仍然很大。去年底開始下降的通膨率在 1、2 月卻停滯不前。

幾位前 Fed 官員認為如果信貸緊縮沒有實質性惡化,就有充分的理由繼續升息 1 碼。前任聯準會副主席 Richard Clarida 建議 Fed 再升息 25 個基點,「如果他們暫緩升息。恐會引發市場擔憂『他們知道一些我們不知道的事情』。」;對沖基金 Citadel 全球固定收益首席經濟學家 Angel Ubide 則警告,「Fed 這次不升息的問題是,市場會立刻預測下次會議將降息。」

認為本週有理由暫緩升息的波士頓聯準銀行前總裁 Eric Rosengren 則稱:「我不會在金融衝擊導致金融環境收緊的同時升息來火上澆油。現在升息 1 碼將對通膨產生相當溫和的影響,但它可能導致金融狀況惡化。」

高盛:本週 Fed 或選擇暫緩升息

動區今日報導,高盛(Goldman Sachs)昨日發布報告稱,聯準會可能為穩定市場情緒而在本週會議上選擇暫停升息,聯準會單次升息 1 碼對未來通膨的影響「非常微弱」,因此官員或選擇在後幾個月繼續升息。報告預計,聯準會將在 5 月、6 月、7 月繼續升 1 碼。

然而,路透社的調查結果卻得出絕大多數經濟學家押注聯準會將不會暫緩升息,參與調查的 82 位經濟學家中,有 高達 76 位認為 Fed 將在本週會議上決議繼續升息 1 碼。

轉貼自: blocktempo.com

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